☀️ Happy Super Bowl Sunday and welcome back to The Nosebleeds (for the first time in AWHILE)!

⁉️ You’ve all probably been wondering (or at least I like to think you’ve been) whether the Nosebleed Sports era had come to a close? The answer to that is no (obviously or I wouldn’t be writing this), but we aren’t going to be doing weekly newsletters anymore.

🔍️ Instead, we are going to be writing in-depth pieces once or twice a month for the biggest events and stories in sports (hence this Super Bowl preview). This will improve the content for you (I think), and gives me more time to focus on some other projects, such as getting absolutely shredded for an upcoming trip Down Under 🦘 (add me on Strava), and a new Spikeball/roundnet newsletter called The Pocket 👀 

🏈 But that’s enough about me, especially on Super Bowl Sunday… time to figure out who is 100%, positively, absolutely, no doubt winning this football game.

🌉 49ers Offense vs Chiefs Defense

The San Francisco 49ers have no weaknesses on offense. The Niners rank first in Expected Points Added (EPA) per Pass and EPA per Rush thanks to an elite combination of skill position players (headlined by NFL Offensive Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey) and Kyle Shanahan, who is arguably the best offensive mind in the NFL (you can find a great EPA explainer here).

On the other side of the field, the Kansas City Chiefs have one of the stingiest defenses in the NFL—ranking 5th in EPA Allowed per Play. But while the Chiefs have an elite secondary (they rank 4th in EPA Allowed per Pass), they are not strong against the run at all, as they are 28th in EPA Allowed per Run.

The biggest question mark for San Francisco’s offense is quarterback Brock Purdy. Purdy has looked pretty mid in the playoffs so far, but has made some solid plays late in games to lead the Niners to the Super Bowl. Purdy isn’t facing off against Jordan Love or Jared Goff tonight though, he’s taking on Patrick Mahomes, who is, in my humble opinion, the best quarterback we have ever seen.

But you know what? It might not even matter how Brock Purdy plays. If the Chiefs can’t stop McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel in that vaunted San Francisco run game, it could be a pretty light day at the office for Purdy. And I know for a fact that if the run game is working, Shanahan will just keep running and running and running. I know this because I watched the 49ers run the ball 47 times against my Minnesota Vikings in the playoffs four years ago. San Francisco could have won that game with me playing quarterback. It was hell.

🪓 Chiefs Offense vs 49ers Defense

This isn’t the same high-flying Kansas City Chiefs offense we’ve seen since Patrick Mahomes took over as the starting quarterback. The Chiefs rank 10th in EPA per Play, but they have looked a lot more like their old selves on their run to Super Bowl LVIII. Simply put, quarterback is the most important position to team success in all of sports, and Kansas City has the best quarterback, so I expect the Chiefs offense to do be very good this evening. 

Math so simple even a rural Manitoba boy knows that adds up.

In my eyes, the biggest misconception going into this Super Bowl is that the 49ers defense is one of the best in the NFL. It is not. The Niners defense has been elite in years past, but that is not the case this season.

San Francisco ranks 13th in EPA Allowed per Play for the year, which is fine but nothing special. But since week 10, it has been even worse…

And the 49ers defense has actually been a lot worse in the playoffs than they were in the regular season. According to Sharp Football Analysis, the Niners have allowed 41.4 yards per drive with 50.0% of possessions reaching the red zone or scoring before the red zone in the playoffs (compared to 29.9 yards and 25.3% in the regular season).

All this is to say, I’m not sure I trust the 49ers to hold off Mahomes, Kelce, and Co. when it matters most.

🔮 PREDICTIONS

Every analytical model I found and every sportsbook I looked at all said the same thing…

The Super Bowl LVIII Champions will be the San Francisco 49ers

^{Note: for those wondering why the DraftKings, FanDuel, and theScore probabilities don’t add up to 100%, this is because of the Vig (short for Vigorish). The Vig is the fee charged by a bookmaker for accepting a gambler’s wager.}

I understand why this is the case—the 49ers have the most efficient offense in the NFL. When you simply look at their production, they are an elite football team.

But despite that, I have the

Kansas City Chiefs winning Super Bowl LVIII

“But Ryan, you’re a numbers guy?! How are you just ignoring the numbers?!”

REASON #1: the 49ers are lucky to even be playing in the SB

Recency bias? Maybe but I do not care.

If Jordan Love didn’t forget how to play football and the Lions weren’t perennial losers the 49ers would not be playing in this football game.

REASON #2: 49ers defense < Kansas City defense

Don’t let the national media fool you, the Chiefs defense is a championship caliber group and the 49ers D is better on paper than on the football field.

REASON #3: there is not a world where I will be caught betting against Patrick Mahomes

Especially when his team has the better defense…

Hope y’all enjoyed… glad to be back 🤠 

Also, if you didn’t click the link the first time, I’m giving you a second chance (begging you) to check out a new newsletter I’m working on with a fellow Ivey alum 😊 

Enjoy the football, pizza, beers, and good company tonight everyone! 🍻

‘til next time 🫡