🩸 NHL Quarter SZN Review

Author

Ryan Young
November 29, 2023

☀️ Good morning and welcome back to The Nosebleeds.

🥅 We are Âź through the NHL season, meaning it’s time to take a look at how all 32 teams have performed to date.

🤿 Let’s dive in.

Note: numbers are from before Tuesday, November 28 games

Tier 1

As of today, these teams are the Stanley Cup favorites.

1. New York Rangers

  • Point %: 77.5%

  • xGF%: 52.4%

  • PDO: 1.000

  • PP%: 30.2%

  • PK%: 86.2%

  • Playoff odds: 92.5%

  • MVP: Artemi Panarin

  • Pleasant surprise: Alexis Lafrenière

  • Figure it out: Kaapo Kakko

  • Season in a sentence: The Rangers have no weaknesses—making them our Stanley Cup favorites through Âź of the season.

2. LA Kings

  • Point %: 76.3%

  • xGF%: 59.9%

  • PDO: 1.022

  • PP%: 20.8%

  • PK%: 89.4%

  • Playoff odds: 98.3%

  • MVP: Anze Kopitar

  • Pleasant surprise: Quinton Byfield, Cam Talbot

  • Figure it out: Pierre-Luc Dubois

  • Season in a sentence: Have been the best all-around team in the NHL so far, if Talbot continues to be solid and net and PLD shows any sort of consistency (unlikely) I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see the Kings crowned as champions.

3. Boston Bruins

  • Point %: 73.8%

  • xGF%: 50.4%

  • PDO: 1.029

  • PP%: 22.1%

  • PK%: 87.7%

  • Playoff odds: 82.7%

  • MVP: David Pastrňåk

  • Pleasant surprise: their center depth w/o Bergeron

  • Figure it out: Milan Lucic

  • Season in a sentence: A team that went into the season with Pavel Zacha as their #1 center has not missed a beat—the Bruins continue to defense and goalie their way through the competition.

4. Vegas Golden Knights

  • Point %: 70.5%

  • xGF%: 52.9%

  • PDO: 1.010

  • PP%: 22.1%

  • PK%: 86.6%

  • Playoff odds: 71.6%

  • MVP: Jack Eichel

  • Pleasant surprise: no Stanley Cup hangover

  • Figure it out: depth scorers

  • Season in a sentence: Vegas came out of the gate still in Stanley Cup champion form, but have struggled as of late as they are 3-5-2 in their last ten games.

5. Dallas Stars

  • Point %: 68.4%

  • xGF%: 50%

  • PDO: 1.004

  • PP%: 21%

  • PK%: 87.9%

  • Playoff odds: 87.4%

  • MVP: Miro Heiskanen

  • Pleasant surprise: Wyatt Johnston

  • Figure it out: N/A, their whole roster has been pretty solid

  • Season in a sentence: A solid team from top to bottom who are strong in all aspects of the game, but do they have enough top-end talent to win the Cup? Only time will tell.

6. Colorado Avalanche

  • Point %: 71.4%

  • xGF%: 53.3%

  • PDO: 0.999

  • PP%: 19.8%

  • PK%: 88%

  • Playoff odds: 96.3%

  • MVP: Cale Makar

  • Pleasant surprise: Valeri Nichushkin

  • Figure it out: Power Play

  • Season in a sentence: The Avs look motivated to bounce back after a 1st round loss at the hands of Seattle last postseason, and even though it is far from horrible at 19.8%, I expect a better PP when you have guys like Makar, Mackinnon, and Rantanen.

Tier 2

The following teams are one or two additions away from cementing themselves as legitimate contenders.

7. Winnipeg Jets

  • Point %: 65%

  • xGF%: 50.3%

  • PDO: 1.019

  • PP%: 19.4%

  • PK%: 73%

  • Playoff odds: 82.2%

  • MVP: Josh Morrissey

  • Pleasant surprise: Cole Perfetti

  • Figure it out: Laurent Brossoit

  • Season in a sentence: Great start to the season for Winnipeg, and reinforcements are on the way with Gabriel Vilardi and Ville Heinola soon returning from injury. If the penalty kill shows any resemblance to last year and they get better goaltending from their back-up, we may have a Tier 1 contender on our hands.

8. Florida Panthers 

  • Point %: 64.3%

  • xGF%: 54.1%

  • PDO: 1.000

  • PP%: 18.3%

  • PK%: 79.4%

  • Playoff odds: 88.3%

  • MVP: Aleksander Barkov

  • Pleasant surprise: Sam Reinhart

  • Figure it out: Sam Bennett

  • Season in a sentence: Last year’s Eastern Conference champs look solid and primed to make another deep run.

9. Carolina Hurricanes

  • Point %: 60%

  • xGF%: 54.5%

  • PDO: 0.984

  • PP%: 21.6%

  • PK%: 74.6%

  • Playoff odds: 85.2%

  • MVP: Jaccob Slavin

  • Pleasant surprise: Seth Jarvis

  • Figure it out: Antti Ranta

  • Season in a sentence: Same old problems for the Canes—goaltending has not been very good and they don’t always to have the firepower to overcome it, but still a very dangerous team.

10. Toronto Maple Leafs

  • Point %: 60.5%

  • xGF%: 52.4%

  • PDO: 0.994

  • PP%: 26.8%

  • PK%: 77.8%

  • Playoff odds: 59.4%

  • MVP: Willy Nylander

  • Pleasant surprise: Nicholas Robertson

  • Figure it out: Ryan Reaves

  • Season in a sentence: Record is above average so far, but only have five regulations wins to date—personally think this is the worst team Toronto has iced in half of a decade.

11. Tampa Bay Lightning

  • Point %: 56.8%

  • xGF%: 51.2%

  • PDO: 0.986

  • PP%: 33.3%

  • PK%: 84.1%

  • Playoff odds:

  • MVP: Nikita Kucherov

  • Pleasant surprise: Michael Eyssimont

  • Figure it out: in OT

  • Season in a sentence: An elite PP led by Nikita Kucherov has kept the Lightning above the playoff line in the absence of star goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy to start the year, but they could be in even better shape if they didn’t have five losses in extra time.

Tier 3

Tier 3 is comprised of teams who have either underperformed or overperformed their preseason expectations—either way, these teams need to keep finding ways to win if they want to find themselves in the Stanley Cup playoffs.

12. Vancouver Canucks

  • Point %: 65.9%

  • xGF%: 51.2%

  • PDO: 1.038

  • PP%: 30%

  • PK%: 76.8%

  • Playoff odds: 89%

  • MVP: Quinn Hughes

  • Pleasant surprise: just how good all of their top players have been

  • Figure it out: no one—couldn’t have asked for a better start if you’re a Canucks fan

  • Season in a sentence: The surprise of the season so far, it looks like Vancouver has banked enough points in a top-heavy Western Conference to take a playoff spot. Their league leading 1.038 PDO will regress eventually—we’ll see how they respond to some bad luck.

13. Pittsburgh Penguins

  • Point %: 50%

  • xGF%: 53.4%

  • PDO: 1.013

  • PP%: 12.5%

  • PK%: 85.7%

  • Playoff odds: 45.3%

  • MVP: Sidney Crosby

  • Pleasant surprise: Sidney Crosby (he’s playing at an MVP level at 36 YO)

  • Figure it out: Power Play

  • Season in a sentence: A 12.5% PP with the likes of Crosby, Karlsson, Guentzel, and more? Figure that out and this veteran team is a dangerous team in the East.

14. New Jersey Devils

  • Point %: 50%

  • xGF%: 52.9%

  • PDO: 0.965

  • PP%: 37.5%

  • PK%: 75.8%

  • Playoff odds: 113.3% 

  • MVP: Jack Hughes

  • Pleasant surprise: Luke Hughes

  • Figure it out: Timo Meier

  • Season in a sentence: The Hughes brothers are the faces of a New Jersey team that had aspirations of a Stanley Cup run before the season, but poor finishing and goaltending leaves them in the middle of the pack for now.

15. Edmonton Oilers

  • Point %: 37.5%

  • xGF%: 55.4%

  • PDO: 0.972

  • PP%: 25.7%

  • PK%: 77.2%

  • Playoff odds: 55%

  • MVP: Leon Draisaitl

  • Pleasant surprise: N/A

  • Figure it out: Stuart Skinner, Jack Campbell, Connor Brown, I could go on…

  • Season in a sentence: I have one word for you: NIGHTMARE. Even in a weak Western Conference, Edmonton is in big trouble if they don’t get better goaltending and start racking up the W’s.

16. Detroit Red Wings

  • Point %: 62.5%

  • xGF%: 45.6%

  • PDO: 1.032

  • PP%: 22.4%

  • PK%: 79%

  • Playoff odds: 67.7%

  • MVP: Dylan Larkin

  • Pleasant surprise: Shayne Gostisbehere

  • Figure it out: Andrew Copp

  • Season in a sentence: Detroit’s record is not indicative of their team strength—they’ve been one of the luckier teams in the NHL so far, and we expect them to end up missing the playoffs.

17. Nashville Predators

  • Point %: 50%

  • xGF%: 53.9%

  • PDO: 1.018

  • PP%: 20.7%

  • PK%: 72.7%

  • Playoff odds: 81.9%

  • MVP: Filip Forsberg

  • Pleasant surprise: Ryan O’Reilly

  • Figure it out: Tyson Barrie

  • Season in a sentence: Nashville has won five in a row at the time of writing and have been solid as of late, but there is not enough talent on this roster to be a true contender—they are a playoff bubble team.

🤔 NHL Trivia

Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman were both unbelievable for the Bruins last season, and have continued their strong play into this season, but were ether of them the NHL’s best goalie in 2022-23?

  • Question: which goalie led the NHL in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) according to MoneyPuck.com during the 2022-23 season?

Answer at the bottom.

Tier 4

The worst tier to be in. No playoffs, no high draft pick, just pain.

18. Seattle Kraken

  • Point %: 47.7%

  • xGF%: 52.5%

  • PDO: 0.986

  • PP%: 23.5%

  • PK%: 73.9%

  • Playoff odds: 35.3%

  • MVP: Vince Dunn

  • Pleasant surprise: Oliver Bjorkstrand

  • Figure it out: Goalies

  • Season in a sentence: Not enough high-end talent combined with both goalies having a Save % below .900 leaves Seattle in the mucky middle.

19. Calgary Flames

  • Point %: 47.7%

  • xGF%: 51.3%

  • PDO: 0.979

  • PP%: 11.3%

  • PK%: 83.6%

  • Playoff odds: 31.2%

  • MVP: N/A

  • Pleasant surprise: Connor Zary

  • Figure it out: Jonathan Huberdeau

  • Season in a sentence: When your top players aren’t performing at a high level—this Calgary Flames team is exactly what you get.

20. New York Islanders

  • Point %: 55%

  • xGF%: 51.2%

  • PDO: 1.010

  • PP%: 22.2%

  • PK%: 70.3%

  • Playoff odds: 40%

  • MVP: Noah Dobson

  • Pleasant surprise: Nothing pleasant going on for the Isles

  • Figure it out: Penalty Kill

  • Season in a sentence: An older and slower team looks old and slow… shocking.

21. St. Louis Blues

  • Point %: 57.5%

  • xGF%: 49.1%

  • PDO: 1.004

  • PP%: 9.8%

  • PK%: 78.9%

  • Playoff odds: 12.7%

  • MVP: Robert Thomas

  • Pleasant surprise: N/A

  • Figure it out: Power Play

  • Season in a sentence: Too good to get a top-5 pick, too bad to make the playoffs—simply not where you want to be.

22. Washington Capitals

  • Point %: 61.1%

  • xGF%: 46%

  • PDO: 0.987

  • PP%: 5.7%

  • PK%: 78.2%

  • Playoff odds: 18.7%

  • MVP: Dylan Strome

  • Pleasant surprise: Their record

  • Figure it out: Power Play

  • Season in a sentence: I really have no idea how this team is above .500, they do nothing well.

23. Philadelphia Flyers

  • Point %: 54.8%

  • xGF%: 48.5%

  • PDO: 0.989

  • PP%: 10.1%

  • PK%: 83.6%

  • Playoff odds: 31.9%

  • MVP: Travis Konecny

  • Pleasant surprise: Sean Couturier

  • Figure it out: Power Play

  • Season in a sentence: With Couturier’s return from injury, the Flyers have been surprisingly decent to start the season.

24. Buffalo Sabres

  • Point %: 50%

  • xGF%: 49.4%

  • PDO: 0.999

  • PP%: 15.9%

  • PK%: 84.2%

  • Playoff odds: 27.3% 

  • MVP: Casey Mittlestadt

  • Pleasant surprise: JJ Peterka

  • Figure it out: Peyton Krebs

  • Season in a sentence: Same old Sabres 🤷‍♀️ 

25. Arizona Coyotes

  • Point %: 50%

  • xGF%: 45.5%

  • PDO: 1.016

  • PP%: 25.4%

  • PK%: 80.8%

  • Playoff odds: 32.8%

  • MVP: Clayton Keller

  • Pleasant surprise: Mattias Maccelli

  • Figure it out: Karel Vegmelka

  • Season in a sentence: Signs of an actual hockey team being put on the ice in the desert for the first time in awhile.

26. Ottawa Senators

  • Point %: 47.1%

  • xGF%: 41.9%

  • PDO: 1.005

  • PP%: 18.9%

  • PK%: 74.6%

  • Playoff odds: 7.1%

  • MVP: Tim Stutzle

  • Pleasant surprise: Mathieu Joseph

  • Figure it out: Anton Forsberg

  • Season in a sentence: I have no clue how D.J. Smith is still the coach of this hockey team.

27. Montreal Canadiens

  • Point %: 47.6%

  • xGF%: 44.3%

  • PDO: 1.015

  • PP%: 18%

  • PK%: 73.5%

  • Playoff odds: 3.7%

  • MVP: Cole Caufield

  • Pleasant surprise: Kaiden Guhle

  • Figure it out: Josh “0 goals” Anderson

  • Season in a sentence: Pretty much what you’d expect from the NHL’s most storied franchise.

28. Minnesota Wild

  • Point %: 36.8%

  • xGF%: 53.5%

  • PDO: 1.001

  • PP%: 16.2%

  • PK%: 66.7%

  • Playoff odds: 23%

  • MVP: Mats Zuccarello

  • Pleasant surprise: Brock Faber

  • Figure it out: Penalty Kill (worst in the NHL)

  • Season in a sentence: Minnesota fired their head coach on Monday because they’ve been so poor, and have no cap space to make any improvements—lost season for them.

Tier 5

Game 7 for these teams is the day when the lottery balls decide their draft day fate.

29. Anaheim Ducks

  • Point %: 42.9%

  • xGF%: 45.8%

  • PDO: 0.977

  • PP%: 20.9%

  • PK%: 79.8%

  • Playoff odds: 2.1%

  • MVP: Frank Vatrano

  • Pleasant surprise: Mason McTavish

  • Figure it out: Trevor Zegras

  • Season in a sentence: Maybe if Zegras wasn’t so busy going out with Dixie D'Amelio he could actually help the Ducks win some games for the first time in a long time.

30. Columbus Blue Jackets

  • Point %: 39.1%

  • xGF%: 47.2%

  • PDO: 1.002

  • PP%: 11.1%

  • PK%: 89.2%

  • Playoff odds: 11%

  • MVP: Boone Jenner

  • Pleasant surprise: Penalty Kill

  • Figure it out: Jonny Gaudreau, Patrik Laine

  • Season in a sentence: This team is on track to earn another top-3 draft pick and they need it—Columbus is a disaster.

31. Chicago Blackhawks 

  • Point %: 31.6%

  • xGF%: 41.4%

  • PDO: 0.989

  • PP%: 9.7%

  • PK%: 76.7%

  • Playoff odds: 1.2%

  • MVP: Connor Bedard

  • Pleasant surprise: Philipp Kurashev

  • Figure it out: Corey Perry (yes I know he’s not on the team anymore)

  • Season in a sentence: Corey Perry really embracing that “father figure” role with Bedard if you know what I mean 😉 

32. San Jose Sharks

  • Point %: 27.3%

  • xGF%: 38.3%

  • PDO: 0.956

  • PP%: 19.7%

  • PK%: 73.1%

  • Playoff odds: 0.1%

  • MVP: Tomas Hertl

  • Pleasant surprise: When they beat the Oilers, who later fired their HC because of the loss to the Sharks

  • Figure it out: Everyone

  • Season in a sentence: Only need one word: atrocious.

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